This section helps you think clearly under uncertainty.
Break hard choices into branches, probabilities, and outcomes.
Real life: Hiring a sales team, entering a market, or building a feature set all become clearer when you map upside, downside, and likelihood.
A decision can be right even if the outcome is bad — and wrong even if you got lucky.
Real life: An investor may back ten startups knowing several will fail because the payoff distribution still makes the bet rational.