These are not separate theories. They are combinations you use to make real calls quickly.
1. Check market reality. Is this an attractive game?
2. Check unit economics. Does each customer actually create value?
3. Check competitive advantage. What keeps margins from getting copied away?
4. Check downside. What kills this business first?
Use Five Forces first. If the market is ugly, do not let a clever product story seduce you.
Then check pricing power. If buyers have total power and switching is trivial, expect pain.
Finally, ask whether you can build an edge that lasts.
Start from value delivered, not your cost structure alone.
Segment customers. Different users often have very different willingness to pay.
Run tests and watch elasticity instead of hiding behind “market standard.”
If retention is weak and paid acquisition is doing all the work, you do not have real momentum. You have rented attention.
Write the branches. Assign rough probabilities. Compare expected value. Force yourself to articulate the downside instead of hand-waving it.
Prioritize fewer bets, define the signal that matters, and shorten review cycles so you learn while the decision still matters.